India’s kharif rice production this year will likely drop to around 120-121 million tonnes (mt) from 121.85 mt last year as excessive rain and floods have affected the yield in some States. The shortage of urea, particularly in August is also likely to lower the yield, though marginally.

According to an analysis of statewise acreage data and rainfall pattern, experts said the situation at the macro level is similar to last kharif season and crop conditions are also good, so far. “One may expect a similar yield as in 2024 at national level, but Punjab will definitely have at least 20 per cent lower output,” said a senior rice breeder.

The area under the kharif paddy increased about 5 per cent as of September 5 from the year-ago period, and it crossed the 2025 season’s total acreage of 434.13 lakh hectare (lh). The rise is the highest (13.5 per cent) in Uttar Pradesh, the biggest producing State of rice in the kharif season. Since the rainfall in rice-growing districts has been good so far, and most of the area is irrigated, rice production in Uttar Pradesh may be over 21 mt this year, said S.K. Singh, an agricultural scientist. In kharif 2024, the production in Uttar Pradesh was 20.24 mt.

Not Punjab alone

However, The Rice Exporters Association’s president, B V Krishna Rao, said that the rice production will be higher from last year despite the floods in Punjab due to higher area and good rainfall. “Paddy can sustain water logging for a few days and losses in Punjab will be offset by higher output in southern States,” Rao said.

Indian Rice Exporters Federation’s president Prem Garg is quite optimistic as he said the production may reach 135 mt as the crop is in good conditions everywhere. But, he said there may be 1-1.5 mt drop in Punjab’s output.

With paddy fields still submerged in Punjab, some analysts say that at least 6 mt of rice production could be affected this Kharif season. In addition, there could be losses in Telangana and Karnataka, where maintenance works in the Tungabhadra region has affected paddy sowing. Paddy has also been affected in parts of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh.

A Delhi-based trader said Basmati production could be affected due to heavy rain and floods in Punjab and Haryana.

Bengal set for record

The US Department of Agriculture has projected India’s rice production at a record 151 mt during the 2025-26 crop year (all three seasons, including kharif). The jury is out if India could achieve the projected production, but the Delhi-based trader said it was still possible.

Farmers in West Bengal, India’s third largest kharif rice-producing State, have sown paddy across 43 lh so far, against 41.55 lh for the same period last year. The West Bengal government had set a target of 42 lh under paddy for this season. “Paddy sowing has surpassed the targeted area. Sowing is almost over now,” Pradip Mazumdar, Minister of Rural Development, told businessline. The State is on track for a record paddy harvest this season, he added. West Bengal had produced 115.72 mt in Kharif 2024.

The State’s minister also ruled out any adverse impact from devastating water discharge through canals and persistent rains leading to deluge of several fields due to timely actions of the government.

Telagana’s woes

In Karnataka, paddy transplanting is complete in 9.98 lh as of first week of September (up from 9 lh year-ago) out of the targetted area of 10.63 lh for the 2025-26 Kharif season. In the irrigated conditions, 7.61 lh has been covered (target 8.05 lh). In the rainfed area, 2.37 lh area is complete against a target of 2.58 lh. The State government aims 4.64 mt of paddy production this year.

But in Telangana, heavy rains and shortage of urea during crucial growth phase of August could impact the paddy production. “Urea shortage has come at a crucial stage of the crop’s growth and this could result in a loss of 10-15 per cent in yields,” S Malla Reddy, a leader of All-India Kisan Sabha told businessline.

(With inputs from Subramani Ra Mancombu in Chennai, Vishwanath Kulkarni in Bengaluru, Mithun Dasgupta in Kolkata and KV Kurmanath in Hyderabad)

This is the second report as part of Businessline’s kharif outlook series. Tomorrow – Pulses prospects)

Published on September 11, 2025