Nifty 50 (25,114) gained 1.5 per cent whereas Nifty Bank (54,809) rose 1.3 per cent over the last week. Here is an analysis of the derivatives data of both indices:

Nifty 50

Nifty futures (September) (25,205) was up 1.4 per cent last week. But it failed to surpass the trend-defining barrier at 25,300. So, although the recent uptick in price shows bulls gaining traction, they are yet to cross the final hurdle.

If the contract breaks out of 25,300, it will open the door for a rally to 26,000. But if the Nifty futures declines, it may drop to retest 24,550. A breach of this can drag the contract to 24,000.

Resistance ahead is not the only challenge for Nifty futures. While it moved up last week, the open interest declined from 171 lakh contracts to 166 lakh contracts, denoting short-covering. So, the upswing was not due to fresh buying, a sign of weakness.

Nevertheless, the Put Call Ratio (PCR) of the weekly options is now at 1.30. Also, the PCR of September monthly options increased marginally – from 1.09 on September 5 to 1.12 on September 12 as a relatively more number of puts were sold, which the traders do when they are optimistic.

Overall, the chart suggests that bulls may be facing their final challenge; the futures and options data appear mixed. Therefore, at the current price levels, we hold a negative inclination albeit softening bearishness.

Strategy: We recommended initiating a short position on Nifty futures (September) when it rises to 25,200. Retain this trade with a stop-loss at 25,500. Exit at 24,600.

In the event of the aforementioned stop-loss of short being triggered, it could mean that the trend has turned bullish. So, if Nifty futures (September) breaks out of 25,500, go long with a stop-loss at 25,250 for a target of 26,000.

Option traders, at the current juncture, can consider buying October 24800-put (₹155.95). Buy this contract at ₹150. Target and stop-loss can be ₹420 and ₹70 respectively.

Nifty Bank

Nifty Bank futures (September) (55,013) advanced 1.2 per cent last week but yet to overturn the downtrend.

Currently hovering around the 21-day moving average, it is facing a trendline resistance at 55,300 followed by another barrier at 55,450. A decisive break out of the latter is needed to call it a trend reversal.

A resumption in downtrend anywhere between 55,000 and 55,450 can lead to a fall to 54,000. However, if the bulls can lift Nifty Bank futures above 55,450, it will open the door for a rally to 56,350 which may extend to 58,000.

While there has been some positive momentum recently, the drop in open interest of futures shows that the rally is weak. Over the last week, the open interest of the September futures decreased from 28.2 lakh contracts to 24.6 lakh contracts. Thus the uptick was due to short covering and not fresh long build-up.

That said, during this period, the PCR increased from 1.19 on September 5 to 1.32 on September 12, supporting the bulls.

Considering the aforesaid factors, it can be gleaned that the bulls need to push a bit more so that the nearest resistance can be breached leading to a trend reversal.

Strategy: Sell Nifty Bank futures (September) at 55,200. Target and stop-loss can be 54,000 and 55,700 respectively.

In case the aforementioned stop-loss is hit, traders can buy Nifty Bank futures (September) with a stop-loss at 55,200, and book profits at 58,000. 

Participants in the options segment can now buy October 54000-put option (₹341.75) if its premium dips to ₹280. Target and stop-loss can be ₹600 and ₹120 respectively.

Published on September 13, 2025